Today morning, 14 February 2022 marked day one of trading with new insight acquired after the first 2 weeks of Live Forex Account Trading. I must say it went well, I was more relaxed throughout the day, even though I had opened 3 trades in the morning, and news outlets were just talking about the forex trading after russia ukraine war. St. Louise Fed Chair, Bullard spoke today on CNBC from 1630 GMT +3 but the markets seem to be bothered with him anymore. Only last week Thursday, 10th February 2022, did he make remarks on proposals of 100 basis points Fed rate hike by July 2022, the markets ‘cared’ at the time, but not today.
The ‘shine’ of interest rates, inflation, central banks’ comments have been stolen by the geopolitics of Ukraine-Russia politics. The news outlets are feeding us with a seesaw of info regarding the matter, one moment they are telling us the matter could be resolved without conflict, and the next squawk is shouting WAR! WAR! WAR!.
Common on guys, we know your mantra is ‘if it bleeds, it leads…’, but chill. We are still trying to know what Corona is, with its many mutations. Citizens of the World, Let’s choose our struggle wisely
Running to Safe Haven Currencies
Enough of the mini-rant, back to our trading, (but still, our leaders should not be proposing war like it’s child’s play, let them go to their meetings and discuss this issue). Now I’m done ranting for good.
In normal trading circumstances, when studying the charts on Sundays, the study starts from Weekly to Daily then to 4 Hour charts. Most of the time, Weekly charts are very slow to show a change of trend, followed by Daily char, and finally, the 4 Hour charts are very fast in telling if there is a trend change. To show it better, the trend change speed can look like below:
Weekly > > Daily >>> 4-Hour Charts.
This was not the case today. The analysis showed USD was the strongest. For the weekly trends to change that fast, well, there has to be an issue. The weakest in the weekly analysis was NZD. \
The daily charts were more granular and showed JPY, CHF, and USD were the strongest with each having a score of 5/2. Strong against 5, and weak against 2. The 2 ‘weaks’ (settle down English teacher) for the three was amongst the 3 e.g. USD was strong against EUR, GBP, NZD, CAD, AUD, but weak against CHF, JPY, and Gold (Still not confident to trade commodities, metals and gas… But I am gathering the data, Baby Steps Young Padawan)
4-hour charts were even more granular. JPY was strongest (7/0), followed by USD (6/1). Strangely CAD was stronger than CHF with the former having 5/2 and the latter having 3 /4. We all the strange safe haven of CHF. This currency has a mind of its own.
NZD was the weakest with 0/7 followed by AUD 1/6.
I had mentioned the major currency crosses I trade in my first blog.
USDCHF Buy (Clash of the Safe Haven)
Took this forex trading for a number of reasons:
- USD was stronger than CHF from the analysis. 6/1 vs 3 /4
- The price had been on top the Kumo cloud for 5 days at the time of the trade.
- Price was above the Daily CPR.
Cons of this Trade
- Price has closed below the Daily CPR on the Daily Chart
- QQE, BBSqueeze, Vortex, and TSV are all showing Short Signals.
By end of day 14th Feb, the pair has more cons but since it has not touched the Kumo, I will let it be.
On the Fundamentals side of things, if things go bad, I think guys will jump to USD as CHF has a ‘bad’ reputation in the speculation world.
The trade is negative 80 points at the time of writing this post.
AUDUSD Sell (Comdoll vs Safe Haven)
Reasons for this trade.
- Price was below Kumo cloud.
- Price was below Daily CPR.
- Chikou Span is below Candles.
Cons of this trade.
- QQE, BBSqueeze, TSV, forex entry point, and Vortex are all indicating Long.
Trade is negative 80 points at the time of writing this post.
Yikes, so far the cons are more than the trade reasons for these 2 trades.
NZDCAD Sell Trade (Trade Analysis Strength vs Weakness Trade)
Reason for trade into forex trading after russia ukraine war.
NZD was the weakest in 4-Hour charts (0/7) vs the third strongest currency 5/2.
Reasons for this trade. They are similar to AUDCAD. This simply takes a 2% risk of comdoll vs safe haven as the 2 currency pairs are positively correlated.
Ideally, the best risk should be 1%, but hey, we had said instead of risking with high lot size, let’s risk 1% with many currency pairs. Of course with the knowledge of correlation.
- Price was below Kumo cloud.
- Price was below Daily CPR.
- Chikou Span is below Candles.
Cons of this trade.
- QQE, BBSqueeze, TSV, forex entry point, and Vortex are all indicating Long.
Same as the first 2 trades, the cons are more than the pros of the trade.
What Gives?
The 3 forex trading have more cons than pros, but the trades are still on. Referring to the immediately previous post, 2022 seems to be a year where fundamentals will have a strong impact on speculative instruments.
Let us look at the quoted cons below:
QQE, BBSqueeze, TSV, forex entry point, and Vortex are all indicating Long.
The quote above means price has steadily been moving to a Long bias, hence QQE crossing to buy-side, BBSqueeze steadily moving to buy, forex entry point indicating buy, same as TSV and vortex. These indicators are lagging in nature, meaning the Buy trade conditions have taken time to develop.
All that Buy setup was all undone by one news release on a Friday evening.
This explains the confusion of forex trading after russia ukraine war that the markets have shown today. At some point, all the three currency pairs were positive 500 points then moved to negative 500 points. The choppiness was galore.
What I am noticing (now that I am deliberate with technical, fundamental, and sentiment analysis), the markets were used to certain conditions (some form of equilibrium) but the Friday news has brought new parameters that have not yet been factored in.
It’s like we are back in the days of Donald Trump Tweets. Oh well, his friend wants to take up from where his friend left off. Yo! If I die mysteriously, check the autopsy for poisoning… heheheh
Trade Space – Stop Loss Placement
Another thing that I have employed today in addition to more emphasis on safe-haven currencies is considering more space for my trade. As you ask, the EA calculates stop-loss placement of ATR time 2. With a lot size of 0.01, it adds up to exactly 1% of the account per trade. Today I was more relaxed.
ATR times 2 seems a lot, especially the GBPAUD trade, it showed a stop loss of almost 5000 points. I guess that is why I ran to AUDUSD. GBP and CHF are ‘big boys’ currencies I tell you.
Always learning new things my friends. Live money trading is something I tell you.
My Watchlist
I am following up on GBPAUD for a buy trade. The price is hugging the Daily CPR. I wanted to take the trade in the morning but settled for an AUDUSD sell. The pair moved in a choppy way as well, positive 500 points, negative 500 points. Alternatively you can look at 5 Ways To Start Your Own Business Online in this uncertain situation.
Give this pair more time. Say tomorrow 1100H GMT +3.
So, today like all the other trading days, we have learned a new thing. How to study how the sentiment/fundamentals are strong. One news event has countered days of market structure/formation?
How I View the Charts With Less Stuff (But Ichimoku Can Seem Cluttered If Not Used To It). That’s all for today. I would love to get your opinions in the comment section or the forums. May the markets be fair to our trades!
